← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 48% | 57% | 2.04 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.47 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 24% | 18% | 4.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 53' | ⚽ | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 69' | ⚽ | Mame Biram Diouf · Stoke |
| 72' | 🟨 | Moritz Bauer · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 19.00 | 811.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1482.50 | 1479.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.90 | -30.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| league points | 20.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 27.26 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 78.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |