← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 56% | 72% | 1.76 | value: +27% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 16% | 3.91 | fair |
| Watford win | 19% | 12% | 5.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 90' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 111.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -1.60 |
| -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1607.30 | 1482.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.71 | -12.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.10 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| league points | 31.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 27.67 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 119.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |