← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 38% | 35% | 2.59 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 36% | 2.97 | value: +7% |
| West Brom win | 29% | 29% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jay Rodriguez · West Brom |
| 45' | 🟨 | Theo Walcott · Everton |
| 58' | 🟨 | Morgan Schneiderlin · Everton |
| 70' | ⚽ | Oumar Niasse · Everton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 80.00 | 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1577.43 | 1485.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.16 | 1.49 |
| eye test v1 | -1.93 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| league points | 27.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 30.00 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 123.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |