← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 61% | 75% | 1.62 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 25% | 14% | 3.85 | fair |
| Brighton win | 14% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 6' | ⚽ | Willian · Chelsea |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Schelotto · Brighton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Shane Duffy · Brighton |
| 77' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 79' | 🟨 | Connor Goldson · Brighton |
| 89' | ⚽ | Victor Moses · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1146.00 | 568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 3.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1486.20 | 1814.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.06 | -4.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 1.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 23.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 13.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 21.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 28.41 | 26.27 |
| state index | -0.46 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| travel km | — | 69.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |