← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 68% | 61% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 27% | 4.97 | value: +32% |
| Crystal Palace win | 12% | 12% | 7.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Nacho Monreal · Arsenal |
| 10' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Arsenal |
| 13' | ⚽ | Laurent Koscielny · Arsenal |
| 22' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 78' | ⚽ | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7782.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1726.18 | 1534.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.08 | 23.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 39.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 35.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | -1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 26.84 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | -2.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| travel km | — | 17.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |