← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 80% | 83% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.20 | fair |
| Stoke win | 6% | 4% | 15.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Antonio Valencia · Man United |
| 38' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
| 67' | 🟨 | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 68' | 🟨 | Stephen Ireland · Stoke |
| 72' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 624.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1806.07 | 1486.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.34 | -23.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| league points | 47.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.99 | 27.83 |
| state index | 0.93 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 53.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |