← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 45% | 59% | 2.17 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 31% | 17% | 3.14 | fair |
| Brighton win | 24% | 25% | 4.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Jonny Evans · West Brom |
| 55' | ⚽ | Craig Dawson · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 73.00 | 1139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 4.20 |
| -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1471.77 | 1499.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.71 | 4.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.96 | 27.78 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 224.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |