← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 36% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
| Watford win | 35% | 46% | 2.79 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 29% | 19% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 31' | 🟨 | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Southampton |
| 44' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Watford |
| 79' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Alex McCarthy · Southampton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dušan Tadić · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cédric Soares · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 12.00 | 226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1483.31 | 1519.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.20 | -14.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | — |
| league points | 25.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.73 | 27.00 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 107.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |