← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 56% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +4% |
| Swansea win | 18% | 17% | 5.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Kyle Bartley · Swansea |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Swansea |
| 68' | ⚽ | Joselu · Newcastle |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alfie Mawson · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 683.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1482.38 | 1470.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.09 | -6.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.23 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.06 | 27.37 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.81 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 401.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |