← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 35% | 21% | 2.79 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 33% | 45% | 2.94 | value: +31% |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.11 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Mark Noble · West Ham |
| 31' | 🟨 | Tommy Smith · Huddersfield |
| 40' | ⚽ | Joe Lolley · Huddersfield |
| 46' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 804.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1498.84 | 1524.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.86 | 24.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 27.72 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 264.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |