← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 45% | 68% | 2.18 | value: +48% ⚠ |
| Draw | 30% | 20% | 3.22 | fair |
| Burnley win | 25% | 12% | 3.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Bakary Sako · Crystal Palace |
| 42' | 🟨 | Steven Defour · Burnley |
| 83' | 🟨 | Phil Bardsley · Burnley |
| 85' | 🟨 | Charlie Taylor · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 134.00 | 1930.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1525.85 | 1547.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.14 | -8.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 22.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.60 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.57 | -1.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 27.73 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.98 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 302.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |