← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 45% | 40% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 21% | 3.21 | fair |
| West Brom win | 25% | 39% | 3.98 | value: +56% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
| 30' | ⚽ | James McClean · West Brom |
| 44' | 🟨 | Arthur Masuaku · West Ham |
| 59' | ⚽ | Andy Carroll · West Ham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Andy Carroll · West Ham |
| 74' | 🟨 | Claudio Yacob · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Grzegorz Krychowiak · West Brom |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andy Carroll · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 62.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1699.38 | 1670.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.86 | -2.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.66 | 29.91 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 173.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |