← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 66% | 70% | 1.48 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.51 | fair |
| Swansea win | 12% | 9% | 8.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Martin Olsson · Swansea |
| 12' | ⚽ | Fernando Llorente · Tottenham |
| 31' | 🟨 | Davinson Sánchez · Tottenham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Érik Lamela · Tottenham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mike Van der Hoorn · Swansea |
| 89' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 32.00 | 1281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1475.82 | 1786.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.57 | 13.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 16.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 26.07 |
| state index | -0.79 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 267.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |