← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 53% | 70% | 1.83 | value: +28% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 16% | 3.52 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 19% | 15% | 5.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Wes Morgan · Leicester |
| 53' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Leicester |
| 60' | ⚽ | Islam Slimani · Leicester |
| 84' | 🟨 | Scott Malone · Huddersfield |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marc Albrighton · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 92.00 | 792.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1589.83 | 1509.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.93 | 16.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 72.70 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| league points | 27.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 27.27 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 122.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |