← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 57% | 66% | 1.71 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 25% | 15% | 3.89 | fair |
| Everton win | 17% | 20% | 5.60 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Wayne Rooney · Everton |
| 57' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 81' | ⚽ | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mason Holgate · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 21 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 61.00 | 610.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1593.41 | 1796.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.14 | -13.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.79 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| league points | 27.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | 1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.45 | 26.20 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 44.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |