← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.80 | fair |
| Burnley win | 15% | 17% | 6.60 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jóhann Guðmundsson · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ragnar Klavan · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 4 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1918.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1770.28 | 1957.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.79 | 12.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 1.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| league points | 34.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.94 | 1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.92 | 25.70 |
| state index | 0.33 | 1.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 62.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |