← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 40% | 33% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.05 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 28% | 39% | 3.48 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Anthony Knockaert · Brighton |
| 33' | ⚽ | Steve Cook · Bournemouth |
| 48' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 79' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 81' | 🟨 | Davy Pröpper · Brighton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Simon Francis · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 26 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 12 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1127.00 | 1918.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1501.23 | 1512.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.25 | -5.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.80 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| league points | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.08 | 25.43 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 124.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |