β Premier League 2017-18 Β· Sun, Dec 31, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 59% | 53% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.19 | fair |
| West Brom win | 17% | 28% | 5.70 | value: +58% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | π¨ | Jonny Evans Β· West Brom |
| 58' | π¨ | Shkodran Mustafi Β· Arsenal |
| 59' | π¨ | Chris Brunt Β· West Brom |
| 82' | π¨ | Craig Dawson Β· West Brom |
| 83' | β½ (og) | James McClean Β· Arsenal |
| 88' | π¨ | Jack Wilshere Β· Arsenal |
| 89' | β½ (pen) | Jay Rodriguez Β· West Brom |
| 90' | π¨ | Petr Δech Β· Arsenal |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 60.00 | 7762.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1665.84 | 1921.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.23 | 0.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 2.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 15.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | 1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 29.92 | 27.25 |
| state index | -0.71 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | β | 165.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |