← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 74% | 79% | 1.32 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.80 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 9% | 7% | 10.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Scott Dann · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 48' | 🟨 | Patrick van Aanholt · Crystal Palace |
| 67' | 🟨 | Yohan Cabaye · Crystal Palace |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jason Puncheon · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martin Kelly · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fernandinho · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yaya Touré · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 121.00 | 548.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1506.41 | 1882.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.93 | 31.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | 1.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 18.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 70.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 2.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 12.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 2.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 28.21 | 26.56 |
| state index | 0.27 | 2.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.59 | 1.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 272.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |