← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 53% | 61% | 1.85 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
| Swansea win | 20% | 13% | 5.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Federico Fernández · Swansea |
| 11' | ⚽ | André Carrillo · Watford |
| 30' | 🟨 | André Carrillo · Watford |
| 34' | 🟨 | Tom Carroll · Swansea |
| 80' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Swansea |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marvin Zeegelaar · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luciano Narsingh · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 243.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1498.06 | 1463.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.32 | -9.49 |
| eye test v1 | -1.27 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.90 | 27.76 |
| state index | -0.56 | -1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 243.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |