← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 45% | 54% | 2.16 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 30% | 17% | 3.22 | fair |
| Brighton win | 24% | 29% | 4.05 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | 🟨 | DeAndre Yedlin · Newcastle |
| 73' | 🟨 | Anthony Knockaert · Brighton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mikel Merino · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 669.00 | 1125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1470.75 | 1500.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.14 | -12.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 68.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.02 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 27.38 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.66 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 468.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |