← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 85% | 73% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 24% | 9.75 | value: +130% |
| Stoke win | 5% | 4% | 21.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Antonio Rüdiger · Chelsea |
| 9' | ⚽ | Danny Drinkwater · Chelsea |
| 23' | ⚽ | Pedro · Chelsea |
| 27' | 🟨 | Mame Biram Diouf · Stoke |
| 52' | 🟨 | Pedro · Chelsea |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Willian · Chelsea |
| 88' | ⚽ | Davide Zappacosta · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 1 |
| 12 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 547.00 | 1704.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.27 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1817.26 | 1502.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.80 | -19.44 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.90 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.60 |
| league points | 42.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.11 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.10 | 27.55 |
| state index | 1.32 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 215.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |