← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 44% | 50% | 2.25 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 31% | 23% | 3.16 | fair |
| Everton win | 25% | 27% | 3.85 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 68' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · West Brom |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gareth Barry · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 55.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 1.60 |
| -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1471.65 | 1606.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.33 | 45.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 30.19 | 26.15 |
| state index | -1.19 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 123.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |