← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 36% | 53% | 2.70 | value: +42% ⚠ |
| Leicester win | 35% | 31% | 2.78 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 16% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Leicester |
| 8' | 🟨 | Ben Watson · Watford |
| 13' | 🟨 | Christian Kabasele · Watford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Dragović · Leicester |
| 37' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Leicester |
| 45' | ⚽ | Molla Wagué · Watford |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Kasper Schmeichel · Watford |
| 81' | 🟨 | Andy King · Leicester |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marvin Zeegelaar · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 239.00 | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1486.37 | 1605.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.07 | 10.17 |
| eye test v1 | -1.16 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 71.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 22.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.73 | 28.12 |
| state index | -0.96 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 119.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |