← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 78% | 75% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 6.30 | value: +12% |
| Burnley win | 7% | 7% | 14.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Marcos Rojo · Man United |
| 3' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 4' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 34' | 🟨 | Charlie Taylor · Burnley |
| 36' | ⚽ | Steven Defour · Burnley |
| 52' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
| 59' | 🟨 | Henrikh Mkhitaryan · Man United |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jóhann Guðmundsson · Burnley |
| 69' | 🟨 | Phil Bardsley · Burnley |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nick Pope · Burnley |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Cork · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 604.00 | 1912.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1981.54 | 1765.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.79 | -5.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.82 |
| league points | 42.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.59 | 27.83 |
| state index | 1.27 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 36.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |