← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 86% | 75% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 21% | 10.50 | value: +117% |
| Swansea win | 5% | 5% | 21.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · Liverpool |
| 52' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 56' | 🟨 | Martin Olsson · Swansea |
| 65' | ⚽ | Trent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool |
| 66' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 82' | ⚽ | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.34 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 278.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1757.25 | 1467.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.57 | -12.11 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| league points | 35.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.75 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 27.58 |
| state index | 1.10 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 209.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |