← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 84% | 80% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 15% | 8.40 | value: +26% |
| Brighton win | 5% | 5% | 21.50 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Chelsea |
| 57' | 🟨 | Dale Stephens · Brighton |
| 60' | ⚽ | Marcos Alonso · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 543.00 | 1121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.88 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1814.08 | 1503.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.29 | -19.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.30 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 69.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| league points | 39.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.07 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 27.88 |
| state index | 1.29 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 69.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |