← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 38% | 28% | 2.56 | fair |
| West Ham win | 31% | 40% | 3.13 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.22 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | James Collins · West Ham |
| 29' | ⚽ | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 32' | 🟨 | Simon Francis · Bournemouth |
| 37' | 🟨 | Pablo Zabaleta · West Ham |
| 55' | 🟨 | James Collins · West Ham |
| 56' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell · West Ham |
| 57' | ⚽ | Nathan Aké · Bournemouth |
| 71' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 79' | 🟨 | Nathan Aké · Bournemouth |
| 81' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Angelo Ogbonna · West Ham |
| 89' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1912.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1502.36 | 1508.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.80 | 27.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 28.54 |
| state index | -0.94 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 156.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |