← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 42% | 32% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.32 | fair |
| Swansea win | 29% | 37% | 3.40 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Federico Fernández · Swansea |
| 34' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 51' | 🟨 | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 62' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Swansea |
| 85' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 22.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1468.37 | 1511.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.43 | 41.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 28.44 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 267.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |