← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 41% | 44% | 2.37 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.17 | fair |
| West Brom win | 28% | 27% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 45' | ⚽ | Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting · Stoke |
| 51' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ramadan Sobhi · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ramadan Sobhi · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1697.00 | 52.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1488.40 | 1483.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.61 | -9.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | 0.64 |
| league points | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.35 | 29.07 |
| state index | -0.95 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 55.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |