← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 59% | 67% | 1.67 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.90 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 16% | 14% | 6.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Southampton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · Southampton |
| 64' | ⚽ | Laurent Depoitre · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Collin Quaner · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 205.00 | 783.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1531.86 | 1509.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.57 | 14.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| league points | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.68 | 27.22 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 306.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |