← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 90% | 57% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 38% | 15.00 | value: +468% ⚠ |
| Bournemouth win | 4% | 5% | 27.00 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 53' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 63' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 79' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 85' | ⚽ | Danilo · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 540.00 | 1909.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1877.67 | 1505.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.37 | -24.47 |
| eye test v1 | 2.39 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 52.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.89 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.30 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 27.38 |
| state index | 1.89 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 306.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |