← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 63% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 16% | 4.13 | fair |
| Everton win | 14% | 22% | 7.16 | value: +60% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 21' | 🟨 | Cuco Martina · Everton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Michael Keane · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 25 |
| 0 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.59 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.61 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 52.00 | 540.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.78 |
| elo | 1602.59 | 1818.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.67 | -4.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 1.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 25.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 14.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | 1.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 26.48 | 26.40 |
| state index | 0.82 | 1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 287.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |