← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 54% | 62% | 1.80 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.52 | fair |
| Swansea win | 18% | 18% | 5.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Mason Holgate · Everton |
| 35' | ⚽ | Leroy Fer · Swansea |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nathan Dyer · Swansea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 52' | 🟨 | Federico Fernández · Swansea |
| 64' | ⚽ | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Everton |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Wayne Rooney · Everton |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jonjoe Kenny · Everton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Leroy Fer · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.64 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 47.00 | 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1594.68 | 1476.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 57.06 | -5.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 27.72 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 210.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |