← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 58% | 60% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
| West Brom win | 16% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 35' | ⚽ | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
| 53' | 🟨 | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 77' | ⚽ | Gareth Barry · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Salomón Rondón · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcos Rojo · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Matić · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 46.00 | 595.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1680.70 | 1981.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.15 | 19.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.85 |
| league points | 14.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 2.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.25 | 26.21 |
| state index | -0.44 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 108.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |