← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 68% | 74% | 1.44 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 19% | 12% | 5.25 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 13% | 14% | 7.35 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Nathan Aké · Bournemouth |
| 20' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · Liverpool |
| 26' | ⚽ | Dejan Lovren · Liverpool |
| 44' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 66' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 73' | 🟨 | Adam Lallana · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 6 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1903.00 | 269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1515.47 | 1745.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.87 | 8.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 67.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| league points | 16.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 64.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.25 | 25.52 |
| state index | -0.44 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 309.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |