← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 57% | 68% | 1.73 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.83 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 18% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Elias Kachunga · Huddersfield |
| 23' | ⚽ | Aaron Mooy · Huddersfield |
| 33' | 🟥 | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 41' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 50' | ⚽ | Laurent Depoitre · Huddersfield |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 61' | 🟥 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 68' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 69' | 🟨 | Laurent Depoitre · Huddersfield |
| 89' | 🟨 | Daryl Janmaat · Watford |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Aaron Mooy · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Mooy · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 229.00 | 776.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1516.51 | 1487.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.48 | -10.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| league points | 22.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.83 | 27.39 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 241.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |