← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 40% | 55% | 2.46 | value: +35% |
| West Ham win | 30% | 23% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark Noble · West Ham |
| 24' | 🟨 | Kevin Wimmer · Stoke |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ryan Shawcross · Stoke |
| 60' | 🟨 | Arthur Masuaku · West Ham |
| 75' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 86' | ⚽ | Diafra Sakho · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1690.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1509.32 | 1500.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.15 | 7.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.46 | 0.77 |
| league points | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.73 | 28.42 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 220.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |