← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 39% | 34% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 46% | 2.89 | value: +32% |
| Burnley win | 27% | 21% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Charlie Taylor · Burnley |
| 68' | 🟨 | Solly March · Brighton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 77' | 🟨 | Dale Stephens · Brighton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shane Duffy · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1111.00 | 1902.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1495.25 | 1555.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.89 | 14.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.00 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.83 |
| league points | 17.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.46 | 27.76 |
| state index | -1.13 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 356.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |