← Premier League 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 45% | 48% | 2.19 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.32 | value: +12% |
| Everton win | 26% | 19% | 3.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Wayne Rooney · Everton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jonjo Shelvey · Newcastle |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mason Holgate · Everton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Mikel Merino · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonjo Shelvey · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jonjo Shelvey · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.68 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.61 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 652.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.32 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1470.70 | 1586.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.56 | 33.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| league points | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 6.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.51 | 26.33 |
| state index | -1.13 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 192.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |