← Premier League 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 81% | 63% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 32% | 7.80 | value: +150% ⚠ |
| West Brom win | 6% | 4% | 15.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 68' | 🟨 | Emre Can · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samuel Field · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| coach days | 265.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| venue | Anfield |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 4.40 |
| -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1944.48 | 1673.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.41 | -11.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| league points | 30.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.78 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 28.76 |
| state index | 1.75 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 122.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |