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Huddersfield 1–3 Chelsea

← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Chelsea win68%71%1.45value: +3%
Draw22%18%4.48fair
Huddersfield win11%10%9.21fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Tiemoué Bakayoko · Chelsea
43'⚽Willian · Chelsea
50'⚽Pedro · Chelsea
90'⚽Laurent Depoitre · Huddersfield

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
7Shots12
2On target5
1Corners3
11Fouls4
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldChelsea
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.38
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.00
box share (last 5)0.640.68
cards avg (last 5)1.401.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJohn Smith's Stadium
coach days772.00529.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.804.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.808.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.883.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.08
dominance (last 5)0.460.69
elo1493.551810.25
elo momentum (last 5)-20.50-6.33
eye test v1-0.861.06
eye trend v10.610.04
first sub minute (last 10)56.5062.00
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.000.90
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.40
keeper form v10.500.72
league points18.0032.00
league rank11.003.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0085.60
possession avg (last 5)46.2061.00
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.440.33
season ppg1.132.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.809.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.0017.00
skill v1-0.841.70
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.305.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.806.20
squad age26.9226.57
state index-0.601.07
sterile dominance v1-0.350.76
threat rate (last 10)0.180.27
threat rate (last 3)0.220.32
threat rate (last 5)0.230.28
travel km—264.00
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40