← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 68% | 71% | 1.45 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.48 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 11% | 10% | 9.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Tiemoué Bakayoko · Chelsea |
| 43' | ⚽ | Willian · Chelsea |
| 50' | ⚽ | Pedro · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Laurent Depoitre · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 772.00 | 529.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1493.55 | 1810.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.50 | -6.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.61 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.72 |
| league points | 18.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | 1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 26.57 |
| state index | -0.60 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 264.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |