← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 43% | 55% | 2.27 | value: +26% |
| Watford win | 29% | 19% | 3.39 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Daryl Janmaat · Watford |
| 63' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 78' | 🟨 | Tom Cleverley · Watford |
| 85' | 🟨 | Patrick van Aanholt · Crystal Palace |
| 87' | 🟨 | Tom Cleverley · Watford |
| 87' | 🟥 | Tom Cleverley · Watford |
| 89' | ⚽ | Bakary Sako · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 102.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1474.96 | 1526.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.92 | 21.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 11.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.37 | 28.28 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 35.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |