← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 51% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.80 | fair |
| Southampton win | 23% | 31% | 4.20 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Southampton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Héctor Bellerín · Arsenal |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 88' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Wilshere · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 192.00 | 7741.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1734.46 | 1921.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.74 | -18.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 2.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.21 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 17.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 69.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 2.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 11.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 8.60 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 26.11 |
| state index | 0.33 | 1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 114.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |