← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 71% | 77% | 1.37 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
| Everton win | 10% | 4% | 9.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Everton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 76' | 🟨 | Dejan Lovren · Liverpool |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Wayne Rooney · Everton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Morgan Schneiderlin · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.66 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 262.00 | 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1759.12 | 1580.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.73 | 9.43 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 24.32 |
| state index | 1.53 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |