← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 76% | 82% | 1.28 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.45 | fair |
| Stoke win | 8% | 5% | 11.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ (og) | Ryan Shawcross · Tottenham |
| 53' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 54' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 65' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mousa Dembélé · Tottenham |
| 74' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
| 80' | ⚽ | Ryan Shawcross · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Wembley Stadium |
| coach days | 1257.00 | 1683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1772.72 | 1522.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.65 | -11.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| league points | 25.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.28 | 28.53 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 210.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |