← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 35% | 41% | 2.84 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 33% | 39% | 2.96 | value: +15% |
| West Brom win | 32% | 20% | 3.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Claudio Yacob · West Brom |
| 35' | 🟨 | Samuel Field · West Brom |
| 51' | 🟨 | Tom Carroll · Swansea |
| 78' | 🟨 | Hal Robson-Kanu · West Brom |
| 81' | ⚽ | Wilfried Bony · Swansea |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jonny Evans · West Brom |
| 86' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Swansea |
| 88' | 🟨 | Chris Brunt · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 8.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1472.65 | 1488.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.69 | -11.19 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.08 | 28.58 |
| state index | -0.91 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 165.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |