← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield win | 36% | 52% | 2.73 | value: +43% ⚠ |
| Draw | 34% | 20% | 2.91 | fair |
| Brighton win | 30% | 28% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Huddersfield |
| 43' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 769.00 | 1104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1601.50 | 1721.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.49 | -9.85 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 73.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.74 |
| league points | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 27.80 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 330.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |