← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 59% | 55% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.44 | fair |
| Watford win | 19% | 28% | 5.26 | value: +45% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Christian Kabasele · Watford |
| 25' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 36' | 🟨 | Tom Cleverley · Watford |
| 50' | 🟨 | Christian Kabasele · Watford |
| 52' | 🟥 | Davinson Sánchez · Tottenham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jan Vertonghen · Tottenham |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marvin Zeegelaar · Watford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 215.00 | 1250.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1529.44 | 1777.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.37 | -44.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.48 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | 1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.52 | 26.28 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 23.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |