← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 53% | 69% | 1.86 | value: +28% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 15% | 3.52 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 20% | 17% | 5.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Scott Malone · Huddersfield |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jonjoe Kenny · Everton |
| 24' | 🟨 | Tom Davies · Everton |
| 47' | ⚽ | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Everton |
| 73' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 31.00 | 762.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1550.92 | 1489.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.68 | -22.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| league points | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 25.95 | 27.34 |
| state index | -0.24 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 82.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |